← Premier League 2024-25 · Wed, Feb 12, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Oliver
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 66% | 62% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 13% | 4.65 | fair |
| Everton win | 13% | 24% | 7.90 | value: +92% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Everton +1.25 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Liverpool +1.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 64% | 1.83 | value: +18% |
| Under | 47% | 36% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Beto · Everton |
| 16' | ⚽ | Alexis Mac Allister · Liverpool |
| 27' | 🟨 | Andy Robertson · Liverpool |
| 35' | 🟨 | Jesper Lindstrøm · Everton |
| 37' | 🟨 | Idrissa Gana Gueye · Everton |
| 45' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Doucouré · Everton |
| 45' | 🟨 | Conor Bradley · Liverpool |
| 63' | 🟨 | Curtis Jones · Liverpool |
| 73' | ⚽ | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
| 90' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Doucouré · Everton |
| 90' | 🟥 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Everton | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Goodison Park |
| Abdoulaye Doucouré · Everton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Curtis Jones · Liverpool |
| 90' | 🟥 | Curtis Jones · Liverpool |
| 90' | ⚽ | James Tarkowski · Everton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 42.00 | 256.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.06 | 4.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.72 |
| elo | 1813.62 | 2114.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.84 | 8.69 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | 1.74 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.52 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 63.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 1.56 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.73 |
| league points | 26.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 61.20 |
| rest days | 11.19 | 11.19 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 2.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 13.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 22.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.34 | 1.79 |
| solidity v1 | 0.63 | 0.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 7.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.80 |
| squad age | 27.77 | 27.89 |
| state index | 0.89 | 2.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.28 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.38 |
| travel km | — | 0.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 0.83 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.42 | 2.55 |