← Premier League 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 2, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: P. Bankes
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 50% | 56% | 1.91 | value: +7% |
| Man City win | 25% | 26% | 3.80 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 18% | 4.17 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal −0.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Man City −0.5 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 58% | 1.60 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 42% | 2.44 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Martin Ødegaard · Arsenal |
| 25' | 🟨 | Jurriën Timber · Arsenal |
| 55' | ⚽ | Erling Haaland · Man City |
| 56' | ⚽ | Thomas Partey · Arsenal |
| 62' | ⚽ | Myles Lewis-Skelly · Arsenal |
| 71' | 🟨 | Martin Ødegaard · Arsenal |
| 76' | ⚽ | Kai Havertz · Arsenal |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ethan Nwaneri · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 6 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arsenal | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Emirates Stadium |
| coach days | 763.00 | 3138.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.24 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.33 | 2.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.55 |
| elo | 2093.18 | 2091.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.94 | 19.13 |
| eye test v1 | 0.05 | 1.50 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 63.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.63 |
| league points | 47.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 89.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 8.06 | 7.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 2.04 | 1.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.65 | 1.53 |
| solidity v1 | 0.91 | -0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.00 |
| squad age | 25.79 | 27.92 |
| state index | 1.62 | 1.94 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.64 | 0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 256.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.88 | 1.50 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.31 | 2.16 |