← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 1, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 42% | 33% | 2.38 | fair |
| Wolves win | 30% | 39% | 3.32 | value: +30% |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.48 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolves +0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Aston Villa +0.25 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 62% | 1.88 | value: +17% |
| Under | 48% | 38% | 2.04 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Jean-Ricner Bellegarde · Wolves |
| 16' | 🟨 | John McGinn · Aston Villa |
| 30' | 🟨 | Morgan Rogers · Aston Villa |
| 34' | 🟨 | Pablo Sarabia · Wolves |
| 45' | 🟨 | Lamare Bogarde · Aston Villa |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matheus Cunha · Wolves |
| 90' | ⚽ | Matheus Cunha · Wolves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 20 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolves | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Molineux Stadium |
| coach days | 62.00 | 823.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 4.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1736.34 | 1889.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.53 | 13.29 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | 0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 51.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.67 |
| league points | 16.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 6.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.70 | 1.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.02 | 0.30 |
| solidity v1 | -1.13 | 0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.82 | 27.34 |
| state index | -0.38 | 0.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 18.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.13 | 1.06 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 1.29 |