← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 1, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Hooper
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest win | 36% | 30% | 2.68 | fair |
| Brighton win | 35% | 29% | 2.74 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 41% | 3.45 | value: +43% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest +0 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Brighton +0 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 62% | 1.84 | value: +14% |
| Under | 47% | 38% | 2.07 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Murillo · Nott'm Forest |
| 12' | 🟨 | Danny Welbeck · Brighton |
| 12' | ⚽ (og) | Lewis Dunk · Nott'm Forest |
| 20' | 🟨 | Jack Hinshelwood · Brighton |
| 25' | ⚽ | Morgan Gibbs-White · Nott'm Forest |
| 32' | ⚽ | Chris Wood · Nott'm Forest |
| 64' | ⚽ | Chris Wood · Nott'm Forest |
| 69' | ⚽ (pen) | Chris Wood · Nott'm Forest |
| 89' | ⚽ | Neco Williams · Nott'm Forest |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bart Verbruggen · Brighton |
| 90' |
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nott'm Forest | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | The City Ground |
| ⚽ |
| Jota Silva · Nott'm Forest |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 428.00 | 245.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1668.40 | 1665.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.61 | 22.04 |
| eye test v1 | 0.09 | -0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.90 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.69 |
| league points | 44.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.60 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.91 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.65 | 0.38 |
| solidity v1 | -0.55 | 0.97 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.53 | 25.93 |
| state index | 0.61 | 0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.02 | 0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 242.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.41 | 1.05 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.39 | 1.26 |