← Premier League 2024-25 · Sun, Jan 26, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: P. Bankes
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 65% | 65% | 1.47 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 19% | 4.90 | fair |
| West Ham win | 15% | 16% | 6.90 | value: +11% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Ham −1.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Aston Villa −1.25 | 48% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 60% | 1.61 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 40% | 2.43 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Jacob Ramsey · Aston Villa |
| 45' | 🟨 | Youri Tielemans · Aston Villa |
| 45' | 🟨 | Aaron Cresswell · West Ham |
| 63' | 🟨 | Tomáš Souček · West Ham |
| 64' | 🟨 | Morgan Rogers · Aston Villa |
| 68' | 🟨 | Edson Álvarez · West Ham |
| 70' | ⚽ | Emerson Palmieri · West Ham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aston Villa | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Villa Park |
| coach days | 817.00 | 25.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 1.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.11 | 3.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1703.59 | 1607.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.60 | -15.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.37 | -0.98 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.60 | 48.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.72 |
| league points | 36.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 8.06 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.11 | -0.05 |
| solidity v1 | -0.15 | -1.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.80 |
| squad age | 26.87 | 28.73 |
| state index | 0.55 | -0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 169.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 1.94 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 0.95 |