← Premier League 2024-25 · Sun, Jan 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Jones
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 63% | 63% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 18% | 5.05 | fair |
| Leicester win | 17% | 19% | 5.85 | value: +10% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leicester −1.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Tottenham −1.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 72% | 66% | 1.34 | fair |
| Under | 28% | 34% | 3.40 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | ⚽ | Richarlison · Tottenham |
| 46' | ⚽ | Jamie Vardy · Leicester |
| 50' | ⚽ | Bilal El Khannouss · Leicester |
| 61' | 🟨 | Bobby Decordova-Reid · Leicester |
| 69' | 🟨 | Sergio Reguilón · Tottenham |
| 71' | 🟨 | James Justin · Leicester |
| 75' | 🟨 | Harry Winks · Leicester |
| 78' | 🟨 | Facundo Buonanotte · Leicester |
| 82' | 🟨 | Jakub Stolarczyk · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 6 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tottenham | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| coach days | 575.00 | 56.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.73 | 1.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1689.38 | 1478.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.66 | -33.49 |
| eye test v1 | 0.01 | -0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.50 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.50 | 0.62 |
| league points | 24.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 2.84 | 7.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 0.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.35 | -0.25 |
| solidity v1 | -0.77 | -0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 25.38 | 27.49 |
| state index | 0.02 | -1.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.63 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 134.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.82 | 1.75 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.44 | 0.84 |