← Premier League 2024-25 · Sun, Jan 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Bankes
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 42% | 64% | 2.34 | value: +49% ⚠ |
| Brighton win | 30% | 18% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 18% | 3.45 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton −0.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Man United −0.25 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 65% | 1.83 | value: +19% |
| Under | 47% | 35% | 2.08 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Yankuba Minteh · Brighton |
| 21' | 🟨 | Carlos Baleba · Brighton |
| 23' | ⚽ (pen) | Bruno Fernandes · Man United |
| 43' | 🟨 | Yankuba Minteh · Brighton |
| 60' | ⚽ | Kaoru Mitoma · Brighton |
| 62' | 🟨 | Manuel Ugarte · Man United |
| 76' | ⚽ | Georginio Rutter · Brighton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Leny Yoro · Man United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Harry Maguire · Man United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Solly March · Brighton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 6 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| coach days | 79.00 | 232.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.83 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1677.10 | 1661.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -49.46 | 16.53 |
| eye test v1 | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.10 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| league points | 26.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 2.75 | 2.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.58 | 0.27 |
| solidity v1 | -0.75 | 0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 24.57 | 25.34 |
| state index | -0.11 | 0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 326.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.75 | 1.06 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.62 | 1.17 |