← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Bramall
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 37% | 33% | 2.66 | fair |
| West Ham win | 34% | 39% | 2.86 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.32 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace +0 | 52% | 1.89 |
| West Ham +0 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 40% | 1.85 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 60% | 2.06 | value: +24% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | Edson Álvarez · West Ham |
| 46' | 🟨 | Konstantinos Mavropanos · West Ham |
| 48' | ⚽ | Jean-Philippe Mateta · Crystal Palace |
| 80' | 🟨 | Konstantinos Mavropanos · West Ham |
| 80' | 🟥 | Konstantinos Mavropanos · West Ham |
| 89' | ⚽ (pen) | Jean-Philippe Mateta · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 12 |
| 0 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Ham | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | London Stadium |
| coach days | 17.00 | 352.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.75 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1818.65 | 1858.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.42 | 9.79 |
| eye test v1 | -0.54 | 0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.40 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.60 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | — |
| league points | 26.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 3.81 | 2.81 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.04 | -0.21 |
| solidity v1 | -1.70 | -0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 29.17 | 26.60 |
| state index | 0.33 | 0.87 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.02 | -0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| travel km | — | 16.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.86 | 1.64 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.16 | 1.39 |