← Premier League 2024-25 · Wed, Jan 15, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Hooper
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 70% | 69% | 1.38 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 18% | 5.50 | fair |
| Tottenham win | 12% | 13% | 8.20 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal −1.25 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Tottenham −1.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 73% | 1.54 | value: +12% |
| Under | 37% | 27% | 2.63 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Son Heung-min · Tottenham |
| 27' | 🟨 | Pape Matar Sarr · Tottenham |
| 40' | ⚽ (og) | Dominic Solanke · Arsenal |
| 43' | 🟨 | Kai Havertz · Arsenal |
| 44' | ⚽ | Leandro Trossard · Arsenal |
| 87' | 🟨 | Myles Lewis-Skelly · Arsenal |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gabriel Magalhães · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arsenal | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Emirates Stadium |
| coach days | 745.00 | 564.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.34 | 1.48 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1891.71 | 1695.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.70 | -33.13 |
| eye test v1 | 0.49 | 0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | -0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 50.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.47 |
| league points | 40.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.00 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.40 | 57.00 |
| rest days | 11.10 | 11.31 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.43 | 0.88 |
| solidity v1 | 1.42 | -1.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.12 | 24.69 |
| state index | 1.44 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.32 | 0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 6.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.73 | 2.15 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.75 | 1.56 |