← Premier League 2024-25 · Sun, Jan 5, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Oliver
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 70% | 70% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 20% | 5.55 | value: +13% |
| Man United win | 12% | 10% | 8.55 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Man United −1.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Liverpool −1.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 75% | 1.53 | value: +15% |
| Under | 37% | 25% | 2.63 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Diogo Dalot · Man United |
| 52' | ⚽ | Lisandro Martínez · Man United |
| 53' | 🟨 | Amad Diallo · Man United |
| 59' | ⚽ | Cody Gakpo · Liverpool |
| 64' | 🟨 | Matthijs de Ligt · Man United |
| 70' | ⚽ (pen) | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
| 73' | 🟨 | Harry Maguire · Man United |
| 76' | 🟨 | Darwin Núñez · Liverpool |
| 80' | ⚽ | Amad Diallo · Man United |
| 83' | 🟨 | Trent Alexander-Arnold · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 9 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Liverpool | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.83 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Anfield |
| coach days | 218.00 | 65.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.61 | 3.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.57 |
| elo | 2105.45 | 1851.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.74 | -32.52 |
| eye test v1 | 2.23 | 0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 47.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.66 |
| league points | 45.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.40 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.20 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 6.97 | 5.85 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 2.50 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.40 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.11 | 0.86 |
| solidity v1 | 0.53 | 0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 10.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 28.11 | 26.47 |
| state index | 2.01 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.12 | 0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 44.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 1.26 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.96 | 1.69 |