← Premier League 2024-25 · Sun, Jan 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Bond
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham win | 61% | 60% | 1.59 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.20 | fair |
| Ipswich win | 16% | 18% | 6.15 | value: +13% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham −1 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Ipswich −1 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 53% | 1.82 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 47% | 2.08 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Leif Davis · Ipswich |
| 38' | ⚽ | Sammie Szmodics · Ipswich |
| 39' | 🟨 | Nathan Broadhead · Ipswich |
| 66' | 🟨 | Dara O'Shea · Ipswich |
| 68' | 🟨 | Sam Morsy · Ipswich |
| 69' | ⚽ (pen) | Raúl Jiménez · Fulham |
| 71' | ⚽ (pen) | Liam Delap · Ipswich |
| 78' | 🟨 | Ben Johnson · Ipswich |
| 90' | 🟨 | Andreas Pereira · Fulham |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Raúl Jiménez · Fulham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fulham | Ipswich |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Craven Cottage |
| coach days | 1284.00 | 1131.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.98 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1871.49 | 1744.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.58 | 11.84 |
| eye test v1 | -0.09 | -0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.40 | 68.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.79 |
| league points | 29.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 37.40 |
| rest days | 6.96 | 5.76 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 0.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.10 | -0.82 |
| solidity v1 | -0.38 | -1.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.82 | 26.34 |
| state index | 0.84 | 0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | -0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 114.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.50 | 2.15 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.03 | 0.99 |