← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Attwell
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford win | 45% | 38% | 2.16 | fair |
| Southampton win | 29% | 37% | 3.44 | value: +27% |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.65 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brentford +0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Southampton +0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 61% | 1.73 | value: +5% |
| Under | 45% | 39% | 2.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Kevin Schade · Brentford |
| 22' | 🟨 | Kyle Walker-Peters · Southampton |
| 62' | ⚽ | Bryan Mbeumo · Brentford |
| 64' | 🟨 | Taylor Harwood-Bellis · Southampton |
| 69' | ⚽ (pen) | Bryan Mbeumo · Brentford |
| 90' | ⚽ | Keane Lewis-Potter · Brentford |
| 90' | ⚽ | Yoane Wissa · Brentford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 20 |
| 1 | On target | 11 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 4 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.81 | 0.84 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days | 34.00 | 2287.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1643.49 | 1812.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.49 | -10.31 |
| eye test v1 | -1.03 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.60 | 64.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| league points | 6.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 2.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.32 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.80 | -10.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.01 | -0.18 |
| solidity v1 | -1.26 | -0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.18 | 25.67 |
| state index | -0.79 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.81 | 0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| travel km | — | 100.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.89 | 1.57 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.99 |