← Premier League 2024-25 · Mon, Dec 30, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: J. Brooks
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 68% | 69% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 16% | 5.28 | fair |
| Ipswich win | 13% | 15% | 7.55 | value: +15% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ipswich +1.5 | 53% | 1.81 |
| Chelsea +1.5 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 68% | 1.51 | fair |
| Under | 35% | 32% | 2.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ (pen) | Liam Delap · Ipswich |
| 32' | 🟨 | Dara O'Shea · Ipswich |
| 53' | ⚽ | Omari Hutchinson · Ipswich |
| 67' | 🟨 | Moisés Caicedo · Chelsea |
| 83' | 🟨 | Liam Delap · Ipswich |
| 88' | 🟨 | Leif Davis · Ipswich |
| 88' | 🟨 | Levi Colwill · Chelsea |
| 88' | 🟨 | Malo Gusto · Chelsea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sam Morsy · Ipswich |
| 90' | 🟨 | Enzo Fernández · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 20 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 5 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ipswich | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| venue | Portman Road |
| coach days | 1125.00 | 212.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 2.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1721.96 | 1986.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.76 | -11.24 |
| eye test v1 | -0.89 | 1.83 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | -0.67 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.60 | 64.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.64 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.74 |
| league points | 12.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 88.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 65.20 |
| rest days | 2.98 | 4.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | 9.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 18.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.45 | 1.56 |
| solidity v1 | -1.23 | 0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 8.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 8.80 |
| squad age | 25.31 | 24.34 |
| state index | -0.25 | 1.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | 0.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 111.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.08 | 0.98 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.77 | 1.62 |