← Premier League 2024-25 · Mon, Dec 30, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: C. Pawson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 51% | 54% | 1.91 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.89 | fair |
| Brighton win | 23% | 23% | 4.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa −0.5 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Brighton −0.5 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 66% | 1.67 | value: +10% |
| Under | 42% | 34% | 2.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Simon Adingra · Brighton |
| 36' | ⚽ (pen) | Ollie Watkins · Aston Villa |
| 38' | 🟨 | Morgan Rogers · Aston Villa |
| 45' | 🟨 | Tyrone Mings · Aston Villa |
| 45' | 🟨 | Yasin Ayari · Brighton |
| 47' | ⚽ | Morgan Rogers · Aston Villa |
| 72' | 🟨 | Carlos Baleba · Brighton |
| 81' | ⚽ | Tariq Lamptey · Brighton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Igor Júlio · Brighton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 12 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aston Villa | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Villa Park |
| coach days | 790.00 | 212.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.53 | 3.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1687.69 | 1643.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.83 | -37.68 |
| eye test v1 | 0.25 | 0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.37 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 61.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| league points | 28.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 4.20 | 3.01 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.33 | 0.70 |
| solidity v1 | -0.01 | 0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 27.37 | 25.08 |
| state index | 0.50 | -0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 221.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.39 | 1.33 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.43 | 1.25 |