← Premier League 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Salisbury
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 63% | 60% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 18% | 4.45 | fair |
| Southampton win | 15% | 22% | 6.43 | value: +42% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace −1 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Southampton −1 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 51% | 1.72 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 49% | 2.21 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Tyler Dibling · Southampton |
| 31' | ⚽ | Trevoh Chalobah · Crystal Palace |
| 52' | ⚽ | Eberechi Eze · Crystal Palace |
| 58' | 🟨 | Mateus Fernandes · Southampton |
| 69' | 🟨 | Taylor Harwood-Bellis · Southampton |
| 79' | 🟨 | Will Hughes · Crystal Palace |
| 80' | 🟨 | Jan Bednarek · Southampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Edward Nketiah · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 7 |
| 10 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 7 |
| 18 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.81 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 332.00 | 28.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.75 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.29 |
| elo | 1840.96 | 1647.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.03 | -20.84 |
| eye test v1 | 0.14 | -0.84 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 47.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| league points | 17.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 0.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -10.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.29 | 0.10 |
| solidity v1 | -0.17 | -2.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.82 | 25.53 |
| state index | 0.70 | -0.88 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.00 | 0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.17 |
| travel km | — | 106.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.46 | 2.57 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.47 | 0.88 |