← Premier League 2024-25 · Thu, Dec 26, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Harrington
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 53% | 48% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | 4.01 | fair |
| Wolves win | 22% | 31% | 4.44 | value: +36% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolves +0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Man United +0.75 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 63% | 1.74 | value: +10% |
| Under | 45% | 37% | 2.19 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Leny Yoro · Man United |
| 18' | 🟨 | Bruno Fernandes · Man United |
| 33' | 🟨 | João Gomes · Wolves |
| 47' | 🟨 | Bruno Fernandes · Man United |
| 47' | 🟥 | Bruno Fernandes · Man United |
| 54' | 🟨 | Manuel Ugarte · Man United |
| 58' | ⚽ | Matheus Cunha · Wolves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matt Doherty · Wolves |
| 90' | ⚽ | Hwang Hee-chan · Wolves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolves | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | Molineux Stadium |
| coach days | 25.00 | 55.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 4.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1742.38 | 1884.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.56 | -19.36 |
| eye test v1 | -0.16 | 0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 50.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.72 |
| league points | 12.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 59.40 |
| rest days | 4.15 | 4.15 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.18 | 1.19 |
| solidity v1 | -0.70 | -0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.95 | 25.48 |
| state index | -0.02 | 0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.45 | 0.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 97.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 1.30 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 1.78 |