β Premier League 2024-25 Β· Thu, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: C. Pawson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest win | 45% | 42% | 2.16 | fair |
| Tottenham win | 31% | 31% | 3.22 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 28% | 3.92 | value: +8% |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest β0.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Tottenham β0.25 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 68% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 32% | 3.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | π¨ | Ryan Yates Β· Nott'm Forest |
| 28' | β½ | Anthony Elanga Β· Nott'm Forest |
| 45' | π¨ | Elliot Anderson Β· Nott'm Forest |
| 49' | π¨ | Radu DrΔguΕin Β· Tottenham |
| 65' | π¨ | Murillo Β· Nott'm Forest |
| 75' | π¨ | Djed Spence Β· Tottenham |
| 77' | π¨ | James Maddison Β· Tottenham |
| 90' | π¨ | Djed Spence Β· Tottenham |
| 90' | π₯ | Djed Spence Β· Tottenham |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nott'm Forest | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | The City Ground |
| coach days | 391.00 | 544.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1636.02 | 1722.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 44.95 | -24.05 |
| eye test v1 | 0.17 | 0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.00 | 51.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.70 |
| league points | 31.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.80 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 3.94 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.82 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.57 | 0.90 |
| solidity v1 | 0.25 | -2.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.12 | 26.18 |
| state index | 0.85 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.15 | 0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| travel km | β | 165.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 2.86 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 1.67 |