← Premier League 2024-25 · Thu, Dec 26, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Hooper
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 71% | 74% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 17% | 5.50 | fair |
| Everton win | 11% | 9% | 9.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Everton −1.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Man City −1.5 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 61% | 1.53 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 39% | 2.63 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Bernardo Silva · Man City |
| 36' | ⚽ | Iliman Ndiaye · Everton |
| 42' | 🟨 | Vitaliy Mykolenko · Everton |
| 52' | 🟨 | Séamus Coleman · Everton |
| 79' | 🟨 | Orel Mangala · Everton |
| 87' | 🟨 | Jarrad Branthwaite · Everton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Phil Foden · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 24 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 5 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| coach days | 3100.00 | 725.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.46 |
| elo | 2080.28 | 1800.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -47.61 | 15.31 |
| eye test v1 | 0.15 | -0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.90 | 69.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.81 |
| league points | 27.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.80 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.60 | 38.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 3.94 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.13 | -0.76 |
| solidity v1 | -0.71 | 0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.92 | 29.42 |
| state index | 0.81 | 0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.36 | -0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 50.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.91 | 1.07 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.34 | 0.78 |