← Premier League 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 22, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Barrott
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 59% | 67% | 1.65 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 21% | 18% | 4.55 | fair |
| Tottenham win | 20% | 15% | 4.90 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tottenham +1 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Liverpool +1 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 73% | 76% | 1.33 | fair |
| Under | 27% | 24% | 3.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Luis Díaz · Liverpool |
| 31' | 🟨 | Cody Gakpo · Liverpool |
| 36' | ⚽ | Alexis Mac Allister · Liverpool |
| 41' | ⚽ | James Maddison · Tottenham |
| 45' | ⚽ | Dominik Szoboszlai · Liverpool |
| 52' | 🟨 | Dominik Szoboszlai · Liverpool |
| 54' | ⚽ | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
| 61' | ⚽ | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
| 72' | ⚽ | Dejan Kulusevski · Tottenham |
| 79' | 🟨 | Lucas Bergvall · Tottenham |
| 83' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 9 | Shots | 24 |
| 5 | On target | 12 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tottenham | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Dominic Solanke · Tottenham |
| 85' | ⚽ | Luis Díaz · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 540.00 | 204.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.25 | 3.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1735.70 | 1889.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.22 | 10.77 |
| eye test v1 | 0.37 | 1.46 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.30 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.73 |
| league points | 23.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.80 | 87.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 8.06 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 2.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 18.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.08 | 1.78 |
| solidity v1 | -1.27 | 0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 24.98 | 27.61 |
| state index | 0.37 | 1.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.65 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| travel km | — | 282.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.05 | 1.36 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.57 | 2.57 |