← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 21, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Hooper
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 65% | 58% | 1.48 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 28% | 4.60 | value: +28% |
| Crystal Palace win | 14% | 14% | 7.60 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal +1 | 54% | 1.78 |
| Crystal Palace +1 | 46% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 56% | 1.85 | value: +4% |
| Under | 47% | 44% | 2.06 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Gabriel Jesus · Arsenal |
| 11' | ⚽ | Ismaïla Sarr · Crystal Palace |
| 15' | ⚽ | Gabriel Jesus · Arsenal |
| 31' | 🟨 | Gabriel Magalhães · Arsenal |
| 36' | 🟨 | Jurriën Timber · Arsenal |
| 38' | ⚽ | Kai Havertz · Arsenal |
| 60' | ⚽ | Gabriel Martinelli · Arsenal |
| 64' | 🟨 | Marc Guéhi · Crystal Palace |
| 79' | 🟨 | Nathaniel Clyne · Crystal Palace |
| 84' | ⚽ | Declan Rice · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.83 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| coach days | 324.00 | 720.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 8.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 1.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 9.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.60 | 4.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.75 |
| elo | 1848.35 | 2079.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 39.23 | 7.13 |
| eye test v1 | 0.28 | 1.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.56 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.64 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.65 |
| league points | 16.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 88.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.40 | 63.80 |
| rest days | 6.15 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 9.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.38 | 1.77 |
| solidity v1 | 0.49 | 1.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 27.01 | 25.28 |
| state index | 0.97 | 1.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.50 | 1.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 17.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 0.47 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.66 | 2.04 |