← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Oliver
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford win | 38% | 36% | 2.53 | fair |
| Nott'm Forest win | 35% | 35% | 2.78 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.66 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brentford +0 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Nott'm Forest +0 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 67% | 1.61 | value: +8% |
| Under | 40% | 33% | 2.43 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Murillo · Nott'm Forest |
| 38' | ⚽ | Ola Aina · Nott'm Forest |
| 40' | 🟨 | Ben Mee · Brentford |
| 51' | ⚽ | Anthony Elanga · Nott'm Forest |
| 55' | 🟨 | Morgan Gibbs-White · Nott'm Forest |
| 57' | 🟨 | Yoane Wissa · Brentford |
| 79' | 🟨 | Jota Silva · Nott'm Forest |
| 84' | 🟨 | Nicolás Domínguez · Nott'm Forest |
| 87' | 🟨 | Mikkel Damsgaard · Brentford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brentford | Nott'm Forest |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Gtech Community Stadium |
| coach days | 2273.00 | 386.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 3.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1626.45 | 1618.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.97 | 22.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.00 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.50 | 62.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| league points | 23.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 38.40 |
| rest days | 5.83 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.00 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.15 | -0.63 |
| solidity v1 | -0.83 | -0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.18 | 26.48 |
| state index | 0.43 | 0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.20 | -1.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| travel km | — | 171.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.68 | 1.24 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.47 | 1.10 |