← Premier League 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 15, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: D. England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 54% | 55% | 1.79 | fair |
| Southampton win | 24% | 24% | 4.04 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 22% | 4.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton +0.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Tottenham +0.75 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 74% | 65% | 1.35 | fair |
| Under | 26% | 35% | 4.00 | value: +39% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | James Maddison · Tottenham |
| 12' | ⚽ | Son Heung-min · Tottenham |
| 14' | ⚽ | Dejan Kulusevski · Tottenham |
| 25' | ⚽ | Pape Matar Sarr · Tottenham |
| 30' | 🟨 | Lucas Bergvall · Tottenham |
| 36' | 🟨 | Mateus Fernandes · Southampton |
| 45' | ⚽ | James Maddison · Tottenham |
| 50' | 🟨 | James Maddison · Tottenham |
| 58' | 🟨 | Brennan Johnson · Tottenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 5 |
| 9 | Shots | 18 |
| 3 | On target | 9 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.81 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days | 14.00 | 533.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.23 | 3.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1399.47 | 1728.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.98 | -25.95 |
| eye test v1 | -0.88 | 0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | -0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.40 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.68 |
| league points | 5.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.60 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 8.17 | 2.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.33 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -13.00 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.43 | 0.80 |
| solidity v1 | -2.72 | -1.92 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 24.90 | 26.24 |
| state index | -1.11 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 120.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.76 | 2.34 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.97 | 1.83 |