← Premier League 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 15, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Bankes
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 71% | 78% | 1.36 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 17% | 15% | 6.30 | fair |
| Brentford win | 13% | 7% | 8.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea −1.5 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Brentford −1.5 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 72% | 74% | 1.33 | fair |
| Under | 28% | 26% | 3.54 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | ⚽ | Marc Cucurella · Chelsea |
| 80' | ⚽ | Nicolas Jackson · Chelsea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marc Cucurella · Chelsea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marc Cucurella · Chelsea |
| 90' | 🟥 | Marc Cucurella · Chelsea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kevin Schade · Brentford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Vitaly Janelt · Brentford |
| 90' | ⚽ | Bryan Mbeumo · Brentford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 26 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| coach days | 197.00 | 2267.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1820.03 | 1630.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 41.50 | 26.82 |
| eye test v1 | 2.77 | 0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 68.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.13 | 1.78 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.69 |
| league points | 31.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.80 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.20 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 3.15 | 8.17 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 2.07 | 1.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.40 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.60 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 2.35 | 0.26 |
| solidity v1 | -0.44 | -0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.90 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 11.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 22.56 | 25.94 |
| state index | 1.55 | 0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.60 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 6.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.59 | 1.76 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.87 | 1.45 |