← Premier League 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Oliver
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton win | 50% | 53% | 1.92 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.73 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 24% | 23% | 4.14 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton −0.5 | 50% | 1.97 |
| Crystal Palace −0.5 | 50% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 53% | 1.82 | fair |
| Under | 46% | 47% | 2.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ | Trevoh Chalobah · Crystal Palace |
| 33' | ⚽ | Ismaïla Sarr · Crystal Palace |
| 45' | 🟨 | Lewis Dunk · Brighton |
| 45' | 🟨 | Marc Guéhi · Crystal Palace |
| 51' | 🟨 | Daniel Muñoz · Crystal Palace |
| 69' | 🟨 | Dean Henderson · Crystal Palace |
| 79' | 🟨 | Ismaïla Sarr · Crystal Palace |
| 82' | ⚽ | Ismaïla Sarr · Crystal Palace |
| 87' | ⚽ (og) | Marc Guéhi · Brighton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 17 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brighton | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | American Express Stadium |
| coach days | 197.00 | 318.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1664.32 | 1621.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.75 | 1.30 |
| eye test v1 | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.65 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.75 |
| league points | 24.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.20 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 38.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 0.87 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.60 | -0.48 |
| solidity v1 | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 24.71 | 26.84 |
| state index | 0.27 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.01 | -1.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| travel km | — | 59.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.36 | 1.38 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.58 | 1.50 |