← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Hooper
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves win | 48% | 48% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.70 | fair |
| Ipswich win | 25% | 27% | 3.93 | value: +8% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ipswich −0.5 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Wolves −0.5 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 55% | 1.87 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 45% | 2.04 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ (og) | Matt Doherty · Ipswich |
| 45' | 🟨 | Rayan Aït-Nouri · Wolves |
| 62' | 🟨 | Harry Clarke · Ipswich |
| 72' | ⚽ | Matheus Cunha · Wolves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rayan Aït-Nouri · Wolves |
| 90' | 🟥 | Rayan Aït-Nouri · Wolves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jack Taylor · Ipswich |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jack Taylor · Ipswich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolves | Ipswich |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Molineux Stadium |
| coach days | 13.00 | 1109.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 8.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.72 | 2.15 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1523.55 | 1442.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.67 | 3.89 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 65.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.69 |
| league points | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 4.79 | 6.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.18 | -0.40 |
| solidity v1 | -0.14 | -0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.38 | 26.37 |
| state index | -0.41 | -0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.01 | -0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 230.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.39 | 1.79 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 1.12 |