← Premier League 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 8, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Taylor
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 43% | 46% | 2.25 | value: +5% |
| Tottenham win | 33% | 29% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.10 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tottenham +0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Chelsea +0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 72% | 70% | 1.35 | fair |
| Under | 28% | 30% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Dominic Solanke · Tottenham |
| 11' | ⚽ | Dejan Kulusevski · Tottenham |
| 17' | ⚽ | Jadon Sancho · Chelsea |
| 21' | 🟨 | Roméo Lavia · Chelsea |
| 30' | 🟨 | Pape Matar Sarr · Tottenham |
| 59' | 🟨 | Yves Bissouma · Tottenham |
| 61' | ⚽ (pen) | Cole Palmer · Chelsea |
| 73' | ⚽ | Enzo Fernández · Chelsea |
| 84' | ⚽ (pen) | Cole Palmer · Chelsea |
| 85' | 🟨 | Pedro Neto · Chelsea |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 5 | Corners | 10 |
| 17 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tottenham | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Robert Sánchez · Chelsea |
| 90' | ⚽ | Son Heung-min · Tottenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 526.00 | 190.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.84 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1735.12 | 1804.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.76 | 32.73 |
| eye test v1 | 1.01 | 2.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 2.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.76 |
| league points | 20.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 88.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 59.60 |
| rest days | 2.84 | 3.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 17.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.82 | 1.87 |
| solidity v1 | -1.33 | 0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 7.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 10.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 8.00 |
| squad age | 26.06 | 24.47 |
| state index | 0.39 | 1.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| travel km | — | 16.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.27 | 1.48 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.89 | 2.86 |