← Premier League 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Attwell
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton win | 58% | 46% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 19% | 4.27 | fair |
| Leicester win | 19% | 34% | 5.00 | value: +71% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton +0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Leicester +0.75 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 64% | 1.58 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 36% | 2.51 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | ⚽ | Tariq Lamptey · Brighton |
| 40' | 🟨 | Carlos Baleba · Brighton |
| 74' | 🟨 | Mats Wieffer · Brighton |
| 79' | ⚽ | Yankuba Minteh · Brighton |
| 86' | ⚽ | Jamie Vardy · Leicester |
| 87' | 🟨 | Boubakary Soumaré · Leicester |
| 90' | ⚽ | Bobby Decordova-Reid · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leicester | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | King Power Stadium |
| coach days | 7.00 | 190.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 3.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1540.64 | 1666.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.59 | 0.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | 0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| league points | 13.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 86.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 4.74 | 2.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 1.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.40 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.37 | 0.61 |
| solidity v1 | -1.29 | -0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.36 | 25.08 |
| state index | -0.37 | 0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 208.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.43 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 1.48 |