← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Hooper
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 41% | 47% | 2.33 | value: +10% |
| Brentford win | 32% | 34% | 3.02 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 26% | 19% | 3.75 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brentford +0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Newcastle +0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 71% | 1.60 | value: +13% |
| Under | 40% | 29% | 2.46 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Bryan Mbeumo · Brentford |
| 11' | ⚽ | Alexander Isak · Newcastle |
| 28' | ⚽ | Yoane Wissa · Brentford |
| 32' | ⚽ | Harvey Barnes · Newcastle |
| 45' | 🟨 | Keane Lewis-Potter · Brentford |
| 56' | ⚽ | Nathan Collins · Brentford |
| 67' | 🟨 | Sepp van den Berg · Brentford |
| 88' | 🟨 | Mark Flekken · Brentford |
| 90' | ⚽ | Kevin Schade · Brentford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 16 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brentford | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Gtech Community Stadium |
| coach days | 2259.00 | 1132.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 3.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1614.00 | 1703.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.45 | 8.19 |
| eye test v1 | -0.44 | -0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.63 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.20 | 59.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.73 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.72 |
| league points | 20.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 2.78 | 2.81 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.40 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | -0.07 |
| solidity v1 | -1.11 | 0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.59 | 27.20 |
| state index | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.30 | -0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 397.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.73 | 1.25 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.32 | 1.20 |