← Premier League 2024-25 · Thu, Dec 5, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: P. Bankes
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham win | 37% | 48% | 2.64 | value: +27% |
| Brighton win | 36% | 27% | 2.70 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.65 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham +0 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Brighton +0 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 63% | 1.69 | value: +6% |
| Under | 43% | 37% | 2.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Alex Iwobi · Fulham |
| 32' | 🟨 | Sander Berge · Fulham |
| 56' | ⚽ | Carlos Baleba · Brighton |
| 63' | 🟨 | Jan Paul van Hecke · Brighton |
| 79' | 🟨 | Lewis Dunk · Brighton |
| 79' | ⚽ (og) | Matt O'Riley · Fulham |
| 87' | ⚽ | Alex Iwobi · Fulham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Andreas Pereira · Fulham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 7 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fulham | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Craven Cottage |
| coach days | 1253.00 | 187.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.16 | 3.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1623.84 | 1681.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.68 | 9.56 |
| eye test v1 | 0.75 | 0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.30 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | — |
| league points | 19.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 86.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.00 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 4.25 | 5.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.46 | 1.77 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.00 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.00 | 0.52 |
| solidity v1 | 0.46 | -0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 28.11 | 25.14 |
| state index | 0.34 | 0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.71 | -0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 68.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.57 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.41 | 1.45 |