← Premier League 2024-25 · Wed, Dec 4, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: L. Smith
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 57% | 63% | 1.70 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | 4.23 | fair |
| Brentford win | 19% | 16% | 5.06 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa −0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Brentford −0.75 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 61% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 39% | 2.51 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Morgan Rogers · Aston Villa |
| 25' | 🟨 | Ethan Pinnock · Brentford |
| 28' | ⚽ (pen) | Ollie Watkins · Aston Villa |
| 34' | ⚽ | Matty Cash · Aston Villa |
| 49' | 🟨 | Nathan Collins · Brentford |
| 54' | ⚽ | Mikkel Damsgaard · Brentford |
| 65' | 🟨 | Jhon Durán · Aston Villa |
| 82' | 🟨 | Matty Cash · Aston Villa |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 9 |
| 10 | On target | 1 |
| 10 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aston Villa | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Villa Park |
| coach days | 764.00 | 2256.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.34 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1686.86 | 1623.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -39.61 | 16.63 |
| eye test v1 | 0.23 | 0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.20 | 65.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.73 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.70 |
| league points | 19.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 3.28 | 4.22 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.46 | 1.54 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.74 | 0.45 |
| solidity v1 | -0.87 | -0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.88 | 26.38 |
| state index | -0.23 | 0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 157.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.54 | 1.51 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.88 | 1.93 |