← Premier League 2024-25 · Wed, Dec 4, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Harrington
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 72% | 79% | 1.33 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 17% | 10% | 5.95 | fair |
| Southampton win | 11% | 11% | 9.07 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea +1.5 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Southampton +1.5 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 78% | 1.37 | value: +6% |
| Under | 30% | 22% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Axel Disasi · Chelsea |
| 11' | ⚽ | Joe Aribo · Southampton |
| 17' | ⚽ | Christopher Nkunku · Chelsea |
| 34' | ⚽ | Noni Madueke · Chelsea |
| 39' | 🟥 | Jack Stephens · Southampton |
| 47' | 🟨 | Adam Armstrong · Southampton |
| 76' | ⚽ | Cole Palmer · Chelsea |
| 87' | ⚽ | Jadon Sancho · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 6 | Shots | 26 |
| 4 | On target | 13 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 7 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days | 3.00 | 186.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.41 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1668.10 | 1980.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.76 | 27.47 |
| eye test v1 | -0.90 | 2.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.70 | 61.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 2.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.82 |
| league points | 5.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.60 | 88.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 60.20 |
| rest days | 4.98 | 3.25 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 0.38 | 1.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -11.00 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.46 | 2.16 |
| solidity v1 | -1.49 | 0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 9.00 |
| squad age | 25.60 | 23.88 |
| state index | -0.08 | 1.88 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.34 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.33 |
| travel km | — | 105.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.12 | 1.29 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.78 | 2.94 |