← Premier League 2024-25 · Tue, Dec 3, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: J. Smith
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham win | 40% | 42% | 2.43 | fair |
| Leicester win | 32% | 33% | 3.04 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leicester +0.25 | 53% | 1.84 |
| West Ham +0.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 59% | 1.80 | value: +6% |
| Under | 47% | 41% | 2.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Jamie Vardy · Leicester |
| 22' | 🟨 | Boubakary Soumaré · Leicester |
| 37' | 🟨 | Jamie Vardy · Leicester |
| 45' | 🟨 | Vladimír Coufal · West Ham |
| 61' | ⚽ | Bilal El Khannouss · Leicester |
| 76' | 🟨 | Edson Álvarez · West Ham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Patson Daka · Leicester |
| 90' | ⚽ | Niclas Füllkrug · West Ham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 31 |
| 6 | On target | 10 |
| 3 | Corners | 9 |
| 9 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leicester | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | King Power Stadium |
| coach days | 2.00 | 155.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 1.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1734.00 | 1823.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -42.06 | 5.42 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 52.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.66 |
| league points | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 3.22 | 3.11 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.77 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | -0.12 |
| solidity v1 | -0.89 | -1.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.69 | 29.27 |
| state index | -0.53 | 0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.60 | -0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 144.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.73 | 2.17 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 1.26 |