← Premier League 2024-25 · Tue, Dec 3, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Pawson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 42% | 45% | 2.30 | value: +3% |
| Ipswich win | 29% | 24% | 3.35 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.40 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ipswich +0.25 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Crystal Palace +0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 50% | 1.88 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 50% | 2.04 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Dara O'Shea · Ipswich |
| 23' | 🟨 | Cheick Doucouré · Crystal Palace |
| 58' | 🟨 | Will Hughes · Crystal Palace |
| 59' | ⚽ | Jean-Philippe Mateta · Crystal Palace |
| 78' | 🟨 | Jacob Greaves · Ipswich |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jean-Philippe Mateta · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ismaïla Sarr · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ipswich | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Portman Road |
| coach days | 1098.00 | 306.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.28 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1742.71 | 1813.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.67 | -1.27 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | 0.74 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.30 | 53.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.75 |
| league points | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 38.40 |
| rest days | 3.19 | 3.19 |
| scorer concentration | 0.46 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.57 | -0.62 |
| solidity v1 | -1.13 | -0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 26.42 | 26.82 |
| state index | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.58 | -1.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.39 |
| travel km | — | 111.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.94 | 1.45 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 1.57 |