β Premier League 2024-25 Β· Sun, Dec 1, 01:30 PM UTC Β· ref: D. Bond
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Tottenham win | 49% | 58% | 1.98 | value: +15% |
| Fulham win | 28% | 22% | 3.61 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 20% | 4.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Fulham β0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Tottenham β0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 68% | 69% | 1.43 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 31% | 3.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 11 |
| 4 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand
| venue | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |