← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 30, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Taylor
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 66% | 63% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 19% | 4.89 | fair |
| West Ham win | 13% | 18% | 7.50 | value: +35% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Ham +1.25 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Arsenal +1.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 71% | 1.67 | value: +18% |
| Under | 42% | 29% | 2.32 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Gabriel Magalhães · Arsenal |
| 27' | ⚽ | Leandro Trossard · Arsenal |
| 34' | ⚽ (pen) | Martin Ødegaard · Arsenal |
| 36' | ⚽ | Kai Havertz · Arsenal |
| 38' | ⚽ | Aaron Wan-Bissaka · West Ham |
| 40' | ⚽ | Emerson Palmieri · West Ham |
| 42' | 🟨 | Emerson Palmieri · West Ham |
| 42' | 🟨 | Bukayo Saka · Arsenal |
| 45' | 🟨 | Łukasz Fabiański · West Ham |
| 45' | 🟨 | Crysencio Summerville · West Ham |
| 45' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 5 |
| 12 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 10 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Ham | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | London Stadium |
| ⚽ (pen) |
| Bukayo Saka · Arsenal |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tomáš Souček · West Ham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 152.00 | 699.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.76 | 5.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1642.13 | 1876.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.07 | -37.30 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | -0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.57 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.30 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.72 |
| league points | 15.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 4.90 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.40 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.19 | 0.52 |
| solidity v1 | -0.71 | 0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 29.15 | 26.76 |
| state index | 0.16 | 0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | 0.94 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 8.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.84 | 1.01 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 1.08 |