← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Bankes
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 37% | 35% | 2.66 | fair |
| Wolves win | 36% | 38% | 2.75 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth +0 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Wolves +0 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 62% | 1.77 | value: +9% |
| Under | 45% | 38% | 2.14 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Nélson Semedo · Wolves |
| 3' | ⚽ (pen) | Justin Kluivert · Bournemouth |
| 5' | ⚽ | Jørgen Strand Larsen · Wolves |
| 8' | ⚽ | Miloš Kerkez · Bournemouth |
| 18' | ⚽ (pen) | Justin Kluivert · Bournemouth |
| 45' | 🟨 | Illia Zabarnyi · Bournemouth |
| 53' | 🟨 | Craig Dawson · Wolves |
| 69' | ⚽ | Jørgen Strand Larsen · Wolves |
| 73' | 🟨 | José Sá · Wolves |
| 74' | ⚽ (pen) | Justin Kluivert · Bournemouth |
| 76' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolves | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | Molineux Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Mario Lemina · Wolves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jørgen Strand Larsen · Wolves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 487.00 | 518.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.63 | 2.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1768.94 | 1823.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 40.12 | 25.74 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| league points | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.60 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.48 | 0.33 |
| solidity v1 | -0.19 | -0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.32 | 25.98 |
| state index | 0.78 | 0.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | -0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 207.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.43 | 1.29 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 1.68 |