← Premier League 2024-25 · Fri, Nov 29, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Jones
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton win | 69% | 63% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 25% | 5.68 | value: +43% |
| Southampton win | 13% | 11% | 7.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton −1.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Brighton −1.5 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 54% | 1.36 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 46% | 3.22 | value: +48% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Flynn Downes · Southampton |
| 16' | 🟨 | Matt O'Riley · Brighton |
| 29' | ⚽ | Kaoru Mitoma · Brighton |
| 31' | 🟨 | Kyle Walker-Peters · Southampton |
| 55' | 🟨 | Taylor Harwood-Bellis · Southampton |
| 59' | ⚽ | Flynn Downes · Southampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mats Wieffer · Brighton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tyler Dibling · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 20 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brighton | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.83 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.00 |
| venue | American Express Stadium |
| coach days | 181.00 | 517.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1883.80 | 1661.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.91 | -9.92 |
| eye test v1 | 0.33 | -0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 47.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.66 |
| league points | 22.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 87.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 6.21 | 5.25 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 0.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -9.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| solidity v1 | -1.00 | -1.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 25.83 | 26.92 |
| state index | 1.09 | -0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.01 | 1.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| travel km | — | 91.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.78 | 2.43 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 1.01 |