← Premier League 2024-25 · Sun, Nov 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Barrott
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 72% | 73% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 18% | 5.95 | value: +10% |
| Southampton win | 11% | 9% | 10.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool +1.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Southampton +1.5 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 69% | 63% | 1.40 | fair |
| Under | 31% | 37% | 3.12 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Conor Bradley · Liverpool |
| 16' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Konaté · Liverpool |
| 23' | 🟨 | Adam Lallana · Southampton |
| 30' | ⚽ | Dominik Szoboszlai · Liverpool |
| 42' | ⚽ | Adam Armstrong · Southampton |
| 49' | 🟨 | Cody Gakpo · Liverpool |
| 56' | ⚽ | Mateus Fernandes · Southampton |
| 65' | ⚽ | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
| 73' | 🟨 | Adam Armstrong · Southampton |
| 83' | ⚽ (pen) | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
| 84' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 27 |
| 5 | On target | 11 |
| 3 | Corners | 10 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.81 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jack Stephens · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 512.00 | 176.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.58 | 3.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1663.73 | 2074.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.18 | 23.23 |
| eye test v1 | -0.75 | 0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.10 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.68 |
| league points | 4.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.20 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 14.96 | 14.75 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 0.36 | 2.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.60 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.47 | 0.78 |
| solidity v1 | -1.53 | 0.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.27 | 26.92 |
| state index | -0.12 | 1.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.08 | 0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 300.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.36 | 0.99 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.88 | 1.56 |