← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Bramall
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves win | 50% | 47% | 1.95 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 36% | 3.80 | value: +36% |
| Southampton win | 24% | 17% | 4.01 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolves −0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Southampton −0.5 | 50% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 57% | 1.73 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 43% | 2.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Pablo Sarabia · Wolves |
| 22' | 🟨 | Taylor Harwood-Bellis · Southampton |
| 51' | 🟨 | Aaron Ramsdale · Southampton |
| 51' | ⚽ | Matheus Cunha · Wolves |
| 78' | 🟨 | Kyle Walker-Peters · Southampton |
| 81' | 🟨 | Jean-Ricner Bellegarde · Wolves |
| 89' | 🟨 | Lesley Ugochukwu · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 0 |
| 1 | Corners | 9 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolves | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.57 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.84 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.20 |
| venue | Molineux Stadium |
| coach days | 466.00 | 497.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | -5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 8.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 4.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1733.18 | 1673.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.04 | -7.04 |
| eye test v1 | 0.10 | -0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 51.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.68 |
| league points | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 87.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | -10.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.28 | 0.32 |
| solidity v1 | -2.50 | -1.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.56 | 26.32 |
| state index | -0.57 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.06 | 0.89 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 194.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.45 | 2.39 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 0.87 |