← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Bond
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford win | 37% | 38% | 2.64 | fair |
| Bournemouth win | 36% | 35% | 2.74 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brentford +0 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Bournemouth +0 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 55% | 1.71 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 45% | 2.23 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Evanilson · Bournemouth |
| 27' | ⚽ | Yoane Wissa · Brentford |
| 34' | 🟨 | Marcos Senesi · Bournemouth |
| 49' | ⚽ | Justin Kluivert · Bournemouth |
| 50' | ⚽ | Mikkel Damsgaard · Brentford |
| 58' | ⚽ | Yoane Wissa · Brentford |
| 68' | 🟨 | Ryan Christie · Bournemouth |
| 81' | 🟨 | Adam Smith · Bournemouth |
| 88' | 🟨 | Kevin Schade · Brentford |
| 89' | 🟨 | Illia Zabarnyi · Bournemouth |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brentford | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.49 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Gtech Community Stadium |
| Fabio Carvalho · Brentford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 2231.00 | 497.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1603.47 | 1629.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.50 | 43.39 |
| eye test v1 | 0.66 | 0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.60 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.90 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.73 |
| league points | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 4.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.54 | 0.17 |
| solidity v1 | -0.96 | 0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.72 | 26.14 |
| state index | 0.24 | 0.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.13 | -0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 137.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 1.09 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.03 | 1.54 |