← Premier League 2024-25 · Sun, Nov 3, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Jones
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 37% | 31% | 2.60 | fair |
| Man United win | 36% | 45% | 2.72 | value: +21% |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.65 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea +0 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Man United +0 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 67% | 1.51 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 33% | 2.67 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | 🟨 | Malo Gusto · Chelsea |
| 42' | 🟨 | Manuel Ugarte · Man United |
| 45' | 🟨 | Diogo Dalot · Man United |
| 67' | 🟨 | Marcus Rashford · Man United |
| 70' | ⚽ (pen) | Bruno Fernandes · Man United |
| 74' | ⚽ | Moisés Caicedo · Chelsea |
| 85' | 🟨 | Casemiro · Man United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Amad Diallo · Man United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lisandro Martínez · Man United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nicolas Jackson · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 19 | Fouls | 14 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| coach days | 2.00 | 155.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.01 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1878.22 | 1953.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.91 | 6.89 |
| eye test v1 | 1.06 | 1.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.77 |
| league points | 11.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 89.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 60.60 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.53 | 1.59 |
| solidity v1 | -0.02 | -0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 26.88 | 23.43 |
| state index | 0.82 | 1.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | 0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 262.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.53 | 1.36 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.41 | 1.95 |