← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 36% | 41% | 2.80 | value: +16% |
| Southampton win | 36% | 27% | 2.72 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 32% | 3.40 | value: +8% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton +0 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Everton +0 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 37% | 1.91 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 63% | 2.00 | value: +27% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | James Tarkowski · Everton |
| 56' | 🟨 | Michael Keane · Everton |
| 76' | 🟨 | Jan Bednarek · Southampton |
| 82' | 🟨 | Mateus Fernandes · Southampton |
| 84' | 🟨 | Tyler Dibling · Southampton |
| 85' | ⚽ | Adam Armstrong · Southampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Paul Onuachu · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 16 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.82 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days | 490.00 | 671.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.17 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1661.69 | 1794.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.39 | 30.63 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.10 | 61.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.61 |
| league points | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.40 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 6.94 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.11 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.80 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.39 | -0.64 |
| solidity v1 | -1.89 | 0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.38 | 29.90 |
| state index | -0.66 | 0.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.64 | -0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 301.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.41 | 1.23 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 1.04 |