← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Bankes
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest win | 47% | 30% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 43% | 3.50 | value: +51% ⚠ |
| West Ham win | 25% | 27% | 3.95 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Ham −0.5 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Nott'm Forest −0.5 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 46% | 1.88 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 54% | 2.03 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Guido Rodríguez · West Ham |
| 27' | ⚽ | Chris Wood · Nott'm Forest |
| 39' | 🟨 | Edson Álvarez · West Ham |
| 45' | 🟨 | Edson Álvarez · West Ham |
| 45' | 🟥 | Edson Álvarez · West Ham |
| 65' | ⚽ | Callum Hudson-Odoi · Nott'm Forest |
| 77' | 🟨 | Lucas Paquetá · West Ham |
| 78' | ⚽ | Ola Aina · Nott'm Forest |
| 81' | 🟨 | Elliot Anderson · Nott'm Forest |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 4 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 11 | Corners | 6 |
| 7 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nott'm Forest | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| venue | The City Ground |
| coach days | 337.00 | 124.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 1.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1804.73 | 1827.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.40 | -1.85 |
| eye test v1 | 0.43 | 0.99 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.40 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.71 |
| league points | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.20 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 7.83 | 6.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.78 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| solidity v1 | 0.18 | -0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 26.80 | 29.44 |
| state index | 0.83 | 0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.55 | -0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| travel km | — | 175.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 1.49 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.32 | 1.88 |