β Premier League 2024-25 Β· Sat, Nov 2, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: T. Robinson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich win | 41% | 45% | 2.36 | value: +7% |
| Leicester win | 32% | 33% | 3.09 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 22% | 3.70 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leicester β0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Ipswich β0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 58% | 1.72 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 42% | 2.22 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | π¨ | Conor Chaplin Β· Ipswich |
| 22' | π¨ | Facundo Buonanotte Β· Leicester |
| 45' | π¨ | Kalvin Phillips Β· Ipswich |
| 55' | β½ | Leif Davis Β· Ipswich |
| 59' | π¨ | Stephy Mavididi Β· Leicester |
| 77' | π¨ | Kalvin Phillips Β· Ipswich |
| 77' | π₯ | Kalvin Phillips Β· Ipswich |
| 84' | π¨ | Arijanet MuriΔ Β· Ipswich |
| 87' | π¨ | Jens Cajuste Β· Ipswich |
| 89' | π¨ | George Hirst Β· Ipswich |
| 90' | β½ |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 20 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ipswich | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| venue | Portman Road |
| Jordan Ayew Β· Leicester |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1067.00 | 1.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.31 | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1731.79 | 1758.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.65 | -2.60 |
| eye test v1 | -0.06 | -0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.30 | 66.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| league points | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 7.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.56 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.44 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -10.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| solidity v1 | -2.54 | -2.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 26.71 | 26.52 |
| state index | -0.38 | 0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.21 | 0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| travel km | β | 167.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.59 | 2.35 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 1.15 |