← Premier League 2024-25 · Sun, Oct 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Coote
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 45% | 40% | 2.15 | fair |
| West Ham win | 29% | 38% | 3.39 | value: +29% |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.75 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Man United +0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| West Ham +0.25 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 65% | 1.67 | value: +8% |
| Under | 42% | 35% | 2.31 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Lucas Paquetá · West Ham |
| 30' | 🟨 | Konstantinos Mavropanos · West Ham |
| 59' | 🟨 | Matthijs de Ligt · Man United |
| 74' | 🟨 | Crysencio Summerville · West Ham |
| 74' | ⚽ | Crysencio Summerville · West Ham |
| 81' | ⚽ | Casemiro · Man United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aaron Cresswell · West Ham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Emerson Palmieri · West Ham |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Jarrod Bowen · West Ham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 18 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 6 | Fouls | 7 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Ham | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | London Stadium |
| coach days | 118.00 | 26.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 3.09 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1817.64 | 1888.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.49 | -7.54 |
| eye test v1 | 0.77 | 0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.73 |
| league points | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 8.10 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.27 | 0.13 |
| solidity v1 | -0.22 | -0.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 28.17 | 26.37 |
| state index | 0.52 | 0.87 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.57 | -0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| travel km | — | 265.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 1.85 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.43 | 1.13 |