← Premier League 2024-25 · Sun, Oct 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Hooper
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 53% | 59% | 1.82 | value: +7% |
| Newcastle win | 23% | 18% | 4.29 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle −0.75 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Chelsea −0.75 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 60% | 1.51 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 40% | 2.66 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Wesley Fofana · Chelsea |
| 18' | ⚽ | Nicolas Jackson · Chelsea |
| 22' | 🟨 | Fabian Schär · Newcastle |
| 32' | ⚽ | Alexander Isak · Newcastle |
| 47' | ⚽ | Cole Palmer · Chelsea |
| 54' | 🟨 | Roméo Lavia · Chelsea |
| 64' | 🟨 | Sandro Tonali · Newcastle |
| 65' | 🟨 | Noni Madueke · Chelsea |
| 84' | 🟨 | Robert Sánchez · Chelsea |
| 88' | 🟨 | Pedro Neto · Chelsea |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sean Longstaff · Newcastle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 148.00 | 1091.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 3.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1945.82 | 1913.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.47 | -21.73 |
| eye test v1 | 1.34 | 0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.80 |
| league points | 14.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.40 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.80 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 2.89 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.75 | 0.99 |
| solidity v1 | -0.14 | -0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 24.08 | 27.05 |
| state index | 1.36 | 0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.57 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 400.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 1.24 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.46 | 1.74 |