β Premier League 2024-25 Β· Sat, Oct 26, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: T. Harrington
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Man City win | 85% | 83% | 1.13 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 12% | 10.50 | value: +29% |
| Southampton win | 5% | 4% | 23.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Man City β2.5 | 50% | 1.97 |
| Southampton β2.5 | 50% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 74% | 69% | 1.32 | fair |
| Under | 26% | 31% | 4.00 | value: +26% |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 5 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 12 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand