← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Oliver
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton win | 61% | 57% | 1.58 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 22% | 4.41 | fair |
| Wolves win | 17% | 21% | 5.80 | value: +22% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolves −1 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Brighton −1 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 57% | 1.63 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 43% | 2.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | 🟨 | Toti Gomes · Wolves |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jørgen Strand Larsen · Wolves |
| 45' | ⚽ | Danny Welbeck · Brighton |
| 50' | 🟨 | Rayan Aït-Nouri · Wolves |
| 56' | 🟨 | Georginio Rutter · Brighton |
| 70' | 🟨 | Igor Júlio · Brighton |
| 74' | 🟨 | Pervis Estupiñán · Brighton |
| 85' | ⚽ | Evan Ferguson · Brighton |
| 88' | ⚽ | Rayan Aït-Nouri · Wolves |
| 90' | ⚽ | Matheus Cunha · Wolves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brighton | Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| venue | American Express Stadium |
| coach days | 147.00 | 452.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -7.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 10.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1865.61 | 1727.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.75 | -29.09 |
| eye test v1 | 0.25 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.20 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.69 |
| league points | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 0.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.69 | -0.43 |
| solidity v1 | -0.54 | -2.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.50 | 27.21 |
| state index | 0.90 | -0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.53 | 0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 238.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.86 | 2.33 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 0.88 |