← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Smith
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford win | 58% | 59% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | 4.20 | fair |
| Ipswich win | 19% | 20% | 5.19 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brentford −0.75 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Ipswich −0.75 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 67% | 1.71 | value: +14% |
| Under | 43% | 33% | 2.24 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Sammie Szmodics · Ipswich |
| 31' | ⚽ | George Hirst · Ipswich |
| 42' | 🟨 | Leif Davis · Ipswich |
| 44' | ⚽ | Yoane Wissa · Brentford |
| 45' | ⚽ | Yoane Wissa · Brentford |
| 49' | 🟨 | Harry Clarke · Ipswich |
| 51' | ⚽ (pen) | Bryan Mbeumo · Brentford |
| 69' | 🟨 | Harry Clarke · Ipswich |
| 69' | 🟥 | Harry Clarke · Ipswich |
| 86' | ⚽ | Liam Delap · Ipswich |
| 90' | ⚽ |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 20 | Shots | 11 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brentford | Ipswich |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Gtech Community Stadium |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 2217.00 | 1060.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 3.24 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1607.27 | 1441.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.68 | -7.50 |
| eye test v1 | 0.60 | -0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | 65.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| league points | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.67 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.20 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.31 | -0.15 |
| solidity v1 | -1.60 | -1.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 2.88 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.25 | 26.33 |
| state index | -0.01 | -0.95 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.51 | -0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 116.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.81 | 2.10 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 1.02 |