← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Barrott
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 58% | 66% | 1.70 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 22% | 16% | 4.41 | fair |
| Brentford win | 20% | 18% | 5.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Man United −0.75 | 54% | 1.84 |
| Brentford −0.75 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 71% | 1.51 | value: +6% |
| Under | 36% | 29% | 2.68 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Jonny Evans · Man United |
| 45' | ⚽ | Ethan Pinnock · Brentford |
| 47' | ⚽ | Alejandro Garnacho · Man United |
| 54' | 🟨 | Diogo Dalot · Man United |
| 55' | 🟨 | Christian Nørgaard · Brentford |
| 62' | ⚽ | Rasmus Højlund · Man United |
| 73' | 🟨 | Kristoffer Ajer · Brentford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 8 |
| 11 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 5 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.67 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| coach days | 18.00 | 2210.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.79 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1688.36 | 1613.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.39 | 3.48 |
| eye test v1 | 0.41 | 1.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 59.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.70 |
| league points | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 13.04 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.61 | 0.47 |
| solidity v1 | -0.62 | -1.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 27.26 | 26.06 |
| state index | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.15 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 257.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.75 | 1.86 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 1.83 |